What Is Going on with ICE Raids?

This is not a political document: it is not intended in any way to sway its readers to any political point of view. My goals are accuracy and clarity.

I asked Microsoft Copilot some questions the other day about ICE raids and learned a number of things. I’m sharing them here in the interest of better understanding. I have edited the responses below for length.

I am not a lawyer, and nothing stated below should even remotely be considered as legal advice.

If you disagree with anything below or believe it is inaccurate, please let me know—I enjoy mutually respectful conversations!

Steve Skaggs
February 2026

Is this an accurate depiction of an ICE raid?

I thought when Trump started cracking down on “illegal immigrants,” the goal was to go for (violent) criminals who are here illegally or people who are here illegally and have committed crimes since they got here. But lately we have all seen videos of masked officers arresting seemingly random people in Latino neighborhoods. What is going on?

Yes, the enforcement pattern has broadened well beyond the original “criminals only” framing. When President Trump began his second term the administration repeatedly said ICE would prioritize the “worst of the worst”—people in the US illegally who had committed serious, especially violent, crimes.

However, independent analyses show a significant shift in practice:

·       A growing share of ICE detentions involve people with no US criminal convictions or charges. By late 2025 and early 2026, roughly 40–48% of people detained by ICE had no criminal record in the United States.

·       Reuters, NBC News, CBS News, and academic studies all found that while arrests of people with criminal convictions did increase, detentions of people with only civil immigration violations increased several times faster. [More on the difference between civil and criminal violations later—SS]

·       In fact, people with no criminal history who are being held for civil immigration violations only are now the largest single group in ICE detention.

The Trump administration maintains, though, that this is still consistent with its goals, once “criminal” is defined more expansively. Several Trump policy decisions caused this expansion:

·       In January 2025 Trump issued an executive order directing DHS to enforce immigration laws against all removable noncitizens, not just those with criminal records. This new policy eliminated the categorical deprioritization of non‑criminal cases.

·       DHS authorized wider use of expedited removal and allowed ICE to rely on administrative (non‑judicial) warrants [More on these later—SS] in more situations.

·       Reporting by Reuters and others indicates internal pressure for high daily numbers [i.e., quotas—SS].

The Trump administration argues that illegal presence itself is a law violation, albeit civil rather than criminal. In addition, it says, that many detainees without US convictions have criminal histories abroad.

When I see video of ICE raids in major cities, what exactly is happening? Have they come into a neighborhood looking for a specific individual or group of individuals? Or are they just going to a place with lots of people of color/Latino people and grabbing them and detaining or arresting them?

Both things are happening.

·       ICE usually starts with specific people in mind: named individuals with prior removal orders, immigration violations, or criminal records.

·       But once agents are on the ground, they are legally allowed—and now often encouraged [quotas again—SS]—to detain additional people they encounter who they believe are removable.

·       This results in operations that functionally sweep up people from Latino‑heavy neighborhoods.

The way it’s supposed to work: ICE raids are “targeted enforcement operations” run by its Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) division. Typically, this means

·       Agents are given lists of specific individuals who may have final removal orders, prior deportations, criminal convictions, and/or missed court dates.

·       Agents go to known addresses, workplaces, or check‑in locations tied to those people

What actually happens: Collateral arrests occur: detaining people who were not the original targets but are present and suspected of being undocumented.

Perhaps surprisingly, legal experts and ICE policy documents confirm that collateral arrests/detentions are explicitly allowed and that agents do not need a separate warrant if they believe someone is removable. Of course, people arrested/detained this way often have no criminal record.

Neighborhood raids became “a thing” in 2025, when ICE made a major tactical shift: making fewer detentions in local jails (where inmates’ identities were already known) and making many more “at‑large” community detentions—homes, streets, businesses, parking lots. These street encounters rely on agent discretion, resulting in

·       Latino communities being disproportionately affected.

·       Many detentions involving people with no criminal history.

·       US citizens and lawful residents being stopped or detained by mistake.

In short, ICE raids usually begin with specific targets, but they are carried out in ways that predictably sweep up many non‑targets—overwhelmingly in Latino communities—through collateral and at‑large detentions.

Help me understand civil vs. criminal.

This is actually one of the most important and most misunderstood parts of US law.

Civil vs. Criminal: The Core Idea

Think of two completely different legal systems, both of which are enforced by people with badges:

·       Criminal Law (does not include immigration policies in most cases)

o   “You broke a law.”

o   Punishes wrongdoing.

o   Jail/prison, fines.

o   Prosecuted by the state.

o   Requires high proof (“beyond a reasonable doubt”).

·       Civil Law (which includes nearly all immigration policies)

o   “You are out of compliance with a legal or regulatory requirement.”

o   Enforces legal status, eligibility, or obligations, not criminal guilt.

o   Remedies may include fines, compliance orders, detention (non-punitive), or removal.

o   Primarily handled by administrative agencies and administrative courts, with limited judicial review.

o   Uses a lower proof (typically preponderance of the evidence, though some matters require clear and convincing evidence)

So, if I am undocumented, am I a criminal?

In almost all cases, no. Being undocumented (overstaying a visa, entering without inspection, losing status) is not a crime under US law. It is a civil violation of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

Of course, some immigration-related actions can be crimes:

·       Illegal re‑entry after deportation.

·       Document fraud.

·       Smuggling.

·       Identity theft.

So, I’m undocumented and not a criminal. But they can still arrest me?

You are a noncitizen (“immigration violator,” “subject to removal,” “out of status,” “deportable”) who is “removable” under civil immigration law. ICE conducts civil arrests, which are not criminal arrests but look identical in practice. [I have endeavored to refer to ICE “detentions” rather than “arrests” in this document in the interest of clarity.—SS]

You can be taken into custody, but you are not being arrested for a crime. You are being subjected, instead, to “civil immigration detention.”

It’s confusing because ICE has authority to detain noncitizens, hold them during removal proceedings, physically restrain and transport them … even though no crime was committed and no criminal charge exists. This is why people say, “You can be jailed without being a criminal.” That statement sounds shocking—but legally, it’s accurate.

So when law enforcement shows up and detains someone for a civil violation or arrests someone for breaking the law, the way they treat the alleged violator/lawbreaker is basically identical: you’re stopped, questioned, cuffed, transported in a police vehicle. But when onlookers say, “He was just arrested for being here illegally,” technically, that’s an inaccurate statement—he was detained.

Unlike people who are arrested for allegedly committing crimes, alleged civil offenders receive

·       No Miranda warning.

·       No criminal court.

·       No jury.

·       No guarantee of a public defender.

How many people as of today are being held in detention by ICE?

As of the most recent publicly available data (mid‑January 2026), about 73,000 people are being held in ICE detention nationwide.

Internal DHS data obtained by CBS News shows that ICE’s detainee population surpassed 70,000 for the first time in ICE’S 23-year history and is an 84% increase from January 2025, when ICE held fewer than 40,000 people.

And how many detainees are actually US citizens and not criminals at all?

There is no official, real‑time government tally of US citizens in ICE custody. But based on the best available investigations and reporting, the answer is that the number is small relative to total detention, but large enough to be systemic, documented, and recurring. At any given moment today, it’s likely that dozens, not thousands, of U.S. citizens with no criminal record are detained.

More recent reporting from ProPublica states that during the current enforcement surge 170+ US citizens were detained or held by immigration agents during 2025 alone; some, including children, were held hours to days. The overwhelming majority had no criminal record whatsoever.

During the recent Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota (Dec 2025–present), multiple US citizens were detained, handcuffed, and/or transported before release. CBS News documented that US citizens with no criminal suspicion beyond name matches or appearance were stopped, detained, and forced to prove citizenship. These were “collateral” or “mistaken targets.”

Percentage-wise, what are the odds that I, a White US citizen from birth with no criminal record of any kind, might be detained by ICE?

For someone in your situation the odds of being detained by ICE are extraordinarily low: on the order of ~0.00005% per year (roughly 1 in 2 million in any given year). This is a rough estimate based on total ICE encounters vs. US population, not an official statistic. This means

·       ICE is not randomly detaining citizens.

·       The overwhelming majority of Americans will never encounter ICE at all.

·       Your statistical risk is far lower than the odds of being

o   Wrongly arrested by local police.

o   Injured in a serious car accident.

o   Struck by lightning.

This does not mean

·       Mistakes can’t happen.

·       Risk is evenly distributed. Higher risk factors include

o   Being Latino or “perceived as foreign.”

o   Being present during ICE raids, protests, or worksite sweeps.

o   Having a name or date‑of‑birth match with non‑citizens in ICE databases.

o   Living or working in surge-enforcement zones (e.g., parts of LA, Minneapolis).

For many, the concern here is not frequency, but constitutional principle: even a small number of citizens detained without cause is a serious issue in a democracy.

If you are an American citizen and are detained by ICE, accused of being here illegally, what should you do?

ICE may briefly detain someone while attempting to verify identity, even if the person asserts citizenship. This is not legally unlimited, but courts have allowed short investigative detentions. If that happens to you,

REMEMBER

1.      ICE encounters are civil immigration enforcement, not criminal policing.

a.      You are not required to answer questions, but voluntarily showing citizenship is often the fastest way to end the encounter.

b.      You may voluntarily present proof of US citizenship, which includes passport, passport number, passport card, REAL ID + birth certificate, REAL ID  + database check, SSN/name/DOB, OR naturalization certificate.

c.      If you have no documentation proving citizenship, ICE will likely do database confirmation, which can take time (minutes or hours, not days).

d.      If these things aren’t working for some reason, ask for a supervisor.

2.      ICE has no legal authority to detain a US citizen once citizenship is established—you should be released on the spot. You should clearly state, “I am a United States citizen. I do not consent to further detention.”

3.      In addition, ICE cannot legally enter your home without your consent or a judicial warrant signed by a judge (i.e., search warrant).

a.      An ICE administrative warrant is not the same thing as a search warrant and does not authorize entry into a private home.

b.      Never consent to entry just to “make it easier.”

c.      Say this calmly and clearly: “I am a United States citizen. My proof is inside my home. I do not consent to a search or entry, but I am asking to retrieve my documents for you to verify my citizenship.”

d.      That does two things:
1. Asserts citizenship clearly.
2. Preserves your Fourth Amendment rights (no unreasonable searches and seizures).

Finally, memorize this statement:

“I am a United States citizen. I do not consent to further detention.”

And remember, they must release you once citizenship is reasonably established.

Copyright 2026 Steven N. Skaggs